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News Analysis
The Dead-End Formula of Neo-Liberal Economics
Sumanasiri Liyanage
This article argues that given the inherent ineffectiveness and incorrectness of the neo liberal policy package in its totality, which has been forwarded with much vigour by the international financial institutions, it is imperative that developing countries look for other alternatives if they want a sustained and stable development strategy, an integral part of which must be protection for its infant industries.
Turkey and the Long Decade with the IMF: 1998-2008
A. Erinc Yeldan
This article provides a critical review of Turkey’s engagement with the IMF over the past decade which ended recently. It argues that the end of the stand by in May 2008 signifies neither autonomy from the IMF nor a successful graduation and a completion of the IMF programme. Present Turkey is characterized by high debt, speculative growth environment with jobless patterns with its government institutions under siege.
   
Fear of Foreigners
Jayati Ghosh
There has been a significant increase in immigration into Italy in the past decade and a half, a significant proportion of which is still “illegal”. The reasons for this rise have been demographics, institutional factors as well as government policy. But recently, in a clear reversal from the past, the attitude towards illegal immigration has hardened in the country, with some of it targeted especially against developing country immigrants.
Small Farmers and the Doha Round: Lessons from Mexico's NAFTA Experience
Mritiunjoy Mohanty
This policy brief has been written in the context of the demand of developing countries, including India, in the on-going Doha round of WTO negotiations for policy space within which protect the livelihood security of their small and marginal farmers. It uses Mexican agriculture’s integration experience under NAFTA to establish that developing country demands are justified. It points out that despite the gains Mexican agriculture has made under NAFTA, the very nature of those gains meant that the brunt of adjustment was borne by small and marginal farmers. This came about both because of the retrenchment of the state and the nature of investment flows under NAFTA. Finally it suggests an alternative agricultural modernisation model centered on small and marginal farmers and maximisation of employment growth.
   
Debt Relief as if Justice Mattered
David Woodward
This report is the last in a series from New Economics Foundation designed to stimulate progress towards a comprehensive and fair treatment of the crisis of sovereign debt. With the end of an unprecedented period of low interest rates now in sight, such a goal is needed more than ever. We incluse a short summary of this paper in section.
Is NAMA a Tool of Development? or Another Manifestation of Asymmetries in WTO Rules?
Mehdi Shafaeddin
This brief argues that the collapse of the talks in the Doha Round actually arises because of fundamental reasons related to the contradictions in design and implementation of WTO rules. There are also inconsistencies between the agreed Doha Text and the subsequent proposals made by developed countries during the process of negotiations. This article concentrates on the issues related to NAMA (non-agricultural market access) as an example.
   
An Insider View from George Soros
C.P. Chandrasekhar
Among some of the voices which are calling for more attention to the nature of the current US financial crisis and for a more disinterested view of the need for state intervention, an influencial one is that of George Soros. His book "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crash of 2008 and What it Means", being released in May, challenges the prevailing sanguine view on the intensity and implications of the crisis. This review is based on a reading of the digital edition available from various ebook sellers and his recent speeches.
The Empire Strikes Back?
Jayati Ghosh
The vicious series of attacks on China against the backdrop of the Beijing Olympics 2008 actually reflects the discomfort of many countries, the developed foremost among them, with China’s status as the emerging economic super power, strengthened by its sheer size in terms of market and labour force, its stable polity and rapidly growing infrastructure.
   
Are We Heading for Global Stagflation?
Jayati Ghosh
The combination of stagnant or falling output and rising prices in the US economy has raised fears of a stagflation not only in the US but in the world economy as well. This article argues that this prediction may well be true, though not on the basis of the monetarist explanation but rather depends ultimately on international political economy and the relative strength of different groups in the world economy.
The Great Unravelling
Jayati Ghosh
With the crisis in the financial system in the US, the days of deregulated finance seems to be over, not only in the US but globally. Finance capital, which has so far systematically tried to undermine the state and demanded autonomy for all its actions, is now calling to that same state to save finance from itself. But this cannot occur without the state at least trying to reassert some control over finance.
   
Leaning on the State
C P Chandrasekhar
Interestingly, the very financial liberalisation that created the problems epitomised by the sub-prime crisis was predicated on a critique of the efficacy and correctness of intervention by the state. But recent developments show that bail-outs by the government of institutions that are weakened by wrong financial decisions are now taken for granted, thus legitimising interventionism. Can the "problem" that liberalisation was directed to "solve" now itself become the solution to the problems that liberalisation creates?
Oil Prices and the US Dollar
C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh.
The depreciation of the US dollar has been closely bound up with the movement of oil prices, as world oil trade is typically denominated in dollars. Yet this relationship may now be under threat as the dollar continues to depreciate and the US economy tips into recession. This article examines how oil prices have changed with different numeraires, and considers the implications for the future of the oil-dollar nexus.
   
The Global Liquidity Paradox
C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh.
One global fall-out of the sub-prime crisis in the US is a liquidity squeeze that central banks in the developed countries are attempting to counter by pumping liquidity into the system and reducing interest rates. This is indeed paradoxical, since the crisis in the first place was a result of an excessive build up of liquidity in the international system, leading to a synchronized boom in stock and real estate markets across the globe. Explaining the paradox requires understanding how the liquidity spiral occurs and how such liquidity is put to use by a liberalized and globalized financial system.
Can China Become the New Growth Pole for Asia?
C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh.
With the US economy clearly tipping into recession, international attention is now focussed on the extent to which China and India can create an alternative growth pole for the world economy through their increasing demand. In this article, the authors assess the potential for China to play such a role by analysing its trade pattern with developing Asia.
   
China's African Hinterland
C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh.
China's growing presence in Africa has led to arguments that the country is seeking to meet its growing requirements of primary products, including oil, by building a relationship reminiscent of a colonial past with many African countries. In this article, the authors examine what the evidence reveals about this relationship.
Closing all Paths to Trade-led Development? The IMF Revises Guiding Principles on Surveillance
Aldo Caliari
This article argues that the International Monetary Fund’s most recent revision of the rules that guide its surveillance of members’ exchange rate policies reduces policy space for developing countries to successfully grow using a trade- and export-led model. This is indeed an irony as this is precisely the type of growth that the Fund, and its sister institution, the Bank, has preached for over twenty years as the one that developing countries should pursue.
   
The CPI(M) and the Building of Capitalism
Prabhat Patnaik
This article argues that the reaction of certain sections of the media and the younger generation to certain statements made in the West Bengal CPI(M) political circles which was read as the CPI(M) having abandoned socialism is misplaced on three counts. Their arguments do not distinguish between socialist and people’s democratic revolutions; between working within a system and working not to transcend the system; and between the Party and Party-led governments. All of this point towards the complexities of the Indian revolution and require an in depth understanding of the political situation.
India and the World Economy
C P Chandrasekhar
Bosted by media reports and assessments by public and private financial institutions of India’s high growth potential, capital inflows have seen a major surge in India resulting for one in huge foreign exchange reserves. But expectations that India is out to share in the spoils of global dominance may be misplaced since these fail to take account of the kind of liabilities that India is accumulating in order to finance its still incipient global expansion. Also, the more the investor and lender confidence results in capital flows in excess of India’s current account financing needs, the greater is the possibility that such confidence can erode.
   
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Economics Associates 2008
 

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