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Featured Articles
Minsky's "Cushions of Safety", Systemic Risk and the Crisis in the US Subprime Mortgage Market
Jan Kregel
The sub prime crisis in the US has little to do with the mortgage market, or subprime mortgages per se, but rather with the basic structure of the financial system that produces overestimates of creditworthiness and underpricing of risk. The bottom line is that the system has been structured to make credit too cheap, leading to excessive risk in order to provide higher returns. The financial fragility that was identified in Minsky's work cannot be eliminated, only damped by systemic policies. However, it is possible to eliminate fragility that emerges from the structure and regulation of the financial system.
 
Managing Financial Instability in Emerging Markets : A Keynesian Perspective
Yilmaz Akyüz
This paper examines the extent to which Keynesian thinking could help understand the causes and dynamics of crises in emerging markets and provide suitable policy prescriptions. It concludes that at the analytical level the endogenous unstable dynamics analyzed by post Keynesians, notably Hyman Minsky, goes a long way in providing a powerful framework for explaining the boom-bust cycles driven by international capital flows in emerging markets. The paper also points out  the need to develop new instruments for stabilization, placing greater emphasis on countercyclical financial regulations and control than has hitherto been the case.
 
Featured Themes
Inflation Targeting: Issues and Alternatives

This is a set of papers which covers theoretical and empirical research on the issue of inflation targeting. The papers specifically cover various outcomes of inflation targeting as well the controversies, exploring alternative approaches, methodologies and solutions. While the impact on employment remains a primary concern of the papers, other specific issues which have been covered are; employment costs of inflation reduction in developing countries from a gender perspective, looking at the nature of inflation targeting from a class based social perspective, a comparison of inflation targeting and real exchange rate targeting in affecting economic growth and employment. In addition, country specific studies on the impact of inflation targeting and alternatives in Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Turkey, India, Vietnam, and Philippines are included.

 
Alternatives
Bank of the South & ALBA: Regional Integration within
the South as an Alternative to the North based Global Hegemony?
  • South Bank: 90 Days of Silence
    Gabriel Strautman
       
    The initiative aimed at the creation of a South American multilateral financial institution or the South Bank as part of an effort to building a new regional financial architecture has run into trouble as consensus on the role of the new institution was never reached among South Bank member countries. The focal points of conflict are related to the composition of capital and the decision-making system of the new institution, which at the same time will be crucial to decide on the Bank's finance goals – maybe the main reason for disagreement among partners.
       
  • South Bank: A People's Perspective of Integration

    This article on the new initiative from South America, the Bank of the South, articulates the position of ‘Jubilee South’ on this issue. It describes the nature of the South Bank, its goals, functioning and finally, its importance in the context of providing an alternative platform for south based economic development that is democratic, participatory, and economically, socially, and environmentally just.
       
  • From Development Assistance to Development Solidarity: The Role of Venezuela and ALBA
    Alejandro Bendaña
       
    This short presentation outlines the need for a new development initiative based in the South as an alternative to the international economic architecture. Specifically, the article suggests that the combination of new ideas and political shifts is being witnessed today in the Venezuela led international collaboration scheme known as ALBA (Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas) which includes a development bank. This has been developed on the premise that a new form of regional integration and indeed greater political unity is necessary for independent development to take place.ill be an important source of hope for the rest of the developing world.
       
  • Shaking up Development Finance in Latin America
    C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh.

    The signing of the agreement by seven South American countries to form the Banco del Sur (Bank of the South) may herald a new era in development finance. The creation of the Banco del Sur is part of a broader trend within Latin America of governments increasingly distancing themselves from the IFIs that are widely perceived as too biased in favour of US interests. Even if this plan succeeds partially, it will be an important source of hope for the rest of the developing world.
 
IDEAs Activities
 
Documents & Statistics
The IMF's Policy Support Instrument:Expanded Fiscal Space or Continued Belt-Tightening?
Action Aid Policy Brief, October, 2007
This Action Aid Policy Brief discusses whether, after two and a half years of 'the Policy Support Instrument (PSI)', there is any evidence that the IMF has used its signaling power to support the 'mature stabilisers' to move from perpetual belt-tightening to long term development and growth. The paper reviews all five PSI agreements that have so far been signed and looked in detail at two of them, in Uganda and Mozambique. The paper finds that PSIs often recommend even stricter inflation targets than their predecessors, despite the progress the IMF has acknowledged, and despite the substantial concern that low inflation targets are inhibiting growth and development.
SCEPA Policy Note on Projected Benefits of the Doha Round Hinge on Misleading Trade Models

This SCEPA Policy Note is based on the authors' 2006 paper for Oxfam International titled, "Modeling the Impact of Trade Liberalization: A Critique of Computable General Equilibrium Models." The principal concern of this paper is that projected welfare gains from trade liberalization are derived from global computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, which are based on highly unrealistic assumptions. In this Policy Note, the authors analyze the foundation of CGE models and argue that their predictions are often misleading. They find that any possible Doha trade agreement is likely to introduce substantial macroeconomic risk for developing countries, and particularly sub-Saharan Africa.

 
Focus
The 'Old' and the 'New': Development Economics and the Current Global Conjuncture
5 new books for academics, campaigners and policy makers
In the current academic discourse, where the study of development has been somewhat relegated into the background by contemporary economics, three new books published by Tulika Books, New Delhi and Zed Books, London, edited by Jomo K.S. along with Ben Fine and Erik. S. Reinert, attempt to rediscover and reinterpret the significance of 'Development Economics' by; delving into its origins in terms of highlighting the enduring developmental concerns of earlier economic discourses, its evolution as in the works of renowned economic thinkers, as well as its newest exposition post Washington Consensus. The focus on development is not new, argue the authors, but have actually been the predominant strain in early economic thought until the 1960s. Two other books edited by Jomo K.S., published under the theme 'The long Twentieth Century' by Oxford University Press, New Delhi, trace the nature of hegemony that has dominated the period of globalization, and underline how this has led to a new world economy marked by divergence and increasing inequalities.
 
IDEAs Working Paper Series
IDEAs Working Papers
  Growth Patterns, Income Distribution and Poverty: Lessons from the Latin American Experience
Carlos Aguiar de Medeiros       
                                           IDEAs Working Paper no. 02/2008

On the Political Economy of Monetary Policy
Saul Keifman       
                                           IDEAs Working Paper no. 01/2008
 
Events & Announcements
 
News Analysis
An Insider View from George Soros
C.P. Chandrasekhar

Among some of the voices which are calling for more attention to the nature of the current US financial crisis and for a more disinterested view of the need for state intervention, an influencial one is that of George Soros. His book "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crash of 2008 and What it Means", being released in May, challenges the prevailing sanguine view on the intensity and implications of the crisis. This review is based on a reading of the digital edition available from various ebook sellers and his recent speeches.

The Empire Strikes Back?
Jayati Ghosh

The vicious series of attacks on China against the backdrop of the Beijing Olympics 2008 actually reflects the discomfort of many countries, the developed foremost among them, with China’s status as the emerging economic super power, strengthened by its sheer size in terms of market and labour force, its stable polity and rapidly growing infrastructure.

Are We Heading for Global Stagflation?
Jayati Ghosh

The combination of stagnant or falling output and rising prices in the US economy has raised fears of a stagflation not only in the US but in the world economy as well. This article argues that this prediction may well be true, though not on the basis of the monetarist explanation but rather depends ultimately on international political economy and the relative strength of different groups in the world economy.

The Great Unravelling
Jayati Ghosh

With the crisis in the financial system in the US, the days of deregulated finance seems to be over, not only in the US but globally. Finance capital, which has so far systematically tried to undermine the state and demanded autonomy for all its actions, is now calling to that same state to save finance from itself. But this cannot occur without the state at least trying to reassert some control over finance.

Leaning on the State
C.P. Chandrasekhar

Interestingly, the very financial liberalisation that created the problems epitomised by the sub-prime crisis was predicated on a critique of the efficacy and correctness of intervention by the state. But recent developments show that bail-outs by the government of institutions that are weakened by wrong financial decisions are now taken for granted, thus legitimising interventionism. Can the "problem" that liberalisation was directed to "solve" now itself become the solution to the problems that liberalisation creates?

Oil Prices and the US Dollar
C.P. Chandrasekhar &
Jayati Ghosh.

The depreciation of the US dollar has been closely bound up with the movement of oil prices, as world oil trade is typically denominated in dollars. Yet this relationship may now be under threat as the dollar continues to depreciate and the US economy tips into recession. This article examines how oil prices have changed with different numeraires, and considers the implications for the future of the oil-dollar nexus.

The Global Liquidity Paradox
C.P. Chandrasekhar &
Jayati Ghosh.

One global fall-out of the sub-prime crisis in the US is a liquidity squeeze that central banks in the developed countries are attempting to counter by pumping liquidity into the system and reducing interest rates. This is indeed paradoxical, since the crisis in the first place was a result of an excessive build up of liquidity in the international system, leading to a synchronized boom in stock and real estate markets across the globe. Explaining the paradox requires understanding how the liquidity spiral occurs and how such liquidity is put to use by a liberalized and globalized financial system.

Can China Become the New Growth Pole for Asia?
C.P. Chandrasekhar &
Jayati Ghosh.

With the US economy clearly tipping into recession, international attention is now focussed on the extent to which China and India can create an alternative growth pole for the world economy through their increasing demand. In this article, the authors assess the potential for China to play such a role by analysing its trade pattern with developing Asia.

China's African Hinterland
C.P. Chandrasekhar &
Jayati Ghosh.

China's growing presence in Africa has led to arguments that the country is seeking to meet its growing requirements of primary products, including oil, by building a relationship reminiscent of a colonial past with many African countries. In this article, the authors examine what the evidence reveals about this relationship.

 
  © International Development
Economics Associates 2008
 

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